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Economic Calendar
This week's high-impact releases.
Wed · Aug 26
12:30
Core PCE Price Index MoM· JULUS
Prev0.1%
Fcst0.3%
Act—
12:30
Durable Goods Orders MoM· JULUS
Prev0.3%
Fcst0.5%
Act—
12:30
GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est· Q2US
Prev2.1%
Fcst1.5%
Act—
12:30
Personal Income MoM· JULUS
Prev0.2%
Fcst0.2%
Act—
12:30
Personal Spending MoM· JULUS
Prev0.3%
Fcst0.3%
Act—
Fri · Aug 28
14:00
Non Farm Payrolls Annual Revision PrelUS
Prev-911K
Fcst—
Act—
14:00
Fed Chair Warsh SpeechUS
Prev—
Fcst—
Act—
Next Week Peek
ISM Manufacturing PMI·Sep 1JOLTs Job Openings·Sep 1
US Treasury Yield Curve
2026-08-20 · NormalToday · 2026-08-20
2s10s 0.50%un-inverted
3M10Y 0.82%
Steepened vs 1M +13bp
vs 1Y -5bp
Fed Funds Futures Curve (ZQ)
Market-implied EFFR path. Each month's ZQ contract prices the average EFFR for that month.
Anchor · EFFR
3.63%
Fed target 3.50–3.75
Today 1M ago EFFR 3.63% Fed target band FOMC · post-meeting implied vs EFFRBold = SEP meeting (Summary of Economic Projections)
Green dots are each month's average implied EFFR from its ZQ contract. FOMC labels solve the implied post-meeting rate (vs current EFFR) using day weights, so a late-month meeting's figure can differ from the dot-to-dot gap. Hover a meeting month for the breakdown.
Next meeting
Sep 16 · +10bp
Cuts by EOY 2026
-1.0 (+26bp)
vs 1M ago: -1.7
Terminal rate
3.63%
Aug 26 contract
Repricing · 1M
-11bp dovish
US Mortgage Rates
FRED · Freddie Mac PMMS · weekly (Thu)30-Year Fixed
6.65%
-0.02 · 1W
52W lo 5.98%52W hi 6.69%
15-Year Fixed
5.95%
-0.01 · 1W
52W lo 5.35%52W hi 6.04%
30Y Mortgage − 10Y Treasury
1.96%
+4bp vs 20Y avg
Elevated spread reflects MBS supply + prepayment option cost in high-vol regime.