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Rates
Market Inflation
Fed Inflation
Labor
Cross-Asset Risk
Economic Calendar
This week's high-impact releases.
Thu · May 28
12:30
GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est· Q1US
Prev0.5%
Fcst2.0%
Act—
12:30
Core PCE Price Index MoM· APRUS
Prev0.3%
Fcst0.3%
Act—
12:30
Durable Goods Orders MoM· APRUS
Prev0.8%
Fcst3.4%
Act—
12:30
Personal Income MoM· APRUS
Prev0.6%
Fcst0.5%
Act—
12:30
Personal Spending MoM· APRUS
Prev0.9%
Fcst0.6%
Act—
Next Week Peek
ISM Manufacturing PMI·Jun 1JOLTs Job Openings·Jun 2ISM Services PMI·Jun 3
US Treasury Yield Curve
2026-05-21 · NormalToday · 2026-05-21
2s10s 0.49%un-inverted
3M10Y 0.89%
Steepened vs 1M -3bp
vs 1Y -9bp
Fed Funds Futures Curve (ZQ)
Market-implied EFFR path. Each month's ZQ contract prices the average EFFR for that month.
Anchor · EFFR
3.62%
Fed target 3.50–3.75
Today 1M ago EFFR 3.62% Fed target band FOMC datesBold = SEP meeting (Summary of Economic Projections)
Next meeting
Jun 17 · 0bp
Cuts by EOY 2026
-0.8 (+21bp)
vs 1M ago: 0.5
Terminal rate
3.62%
Jun 26 contract
Repricing · 1M
+34bp hawkish
US Mortgage Rates
FRED · Freddie Mac PMMS · weekly (Thu)30-Year Fixed
6.51%
+0.15 · 1W
52W lo 5.98%52W hi 6.89%
15-Year Fixed
5.85%
+0.14 · 1W
52W lo 5.35%52W hi 6.03%
30Y Mortgage − 10Y Treasury
1.94%
+3bp vs 20Y avg
Elevated spread reflects MBS supply + prepayment option cost in high-vol regime.