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Market Inflation
Fed Inflation
Labor
Cross-Asset Risk
Economic Calendar
This week's high-impact releases.
Mon · Jul 6
14:00
ISM Services PMI· JUNUS
Prev54.5
Fcst54.0
Act54.0
Wed · Jul 8
18:00
FOMC MinutesUS
Prev—
Fcst—
Act—
Thu · Jul 9
14:00
Existing Home Sales· JUNUS
Prev4.19M
Fcst4.20M
Act4.09M
Next Week Peek
Core Inflation Rate YoY·Jul 14Inflation Rate MoM·Jul 14Inflation Rate YoY·Jul 14Core Inflation Rate MoM·Jul 14Fed Chair Warsh Testimony·Jul 14PPI MoM·Jul 15
US Treasury Yield Curve
2026-07-07 · NormalToday · 2026-07-07
2s10s 0.36%un-inverted
3M10Y 0.69%
Steepened vs 1M -2bp
vs 1Y -14bp
Fed Funds Futures Curve (ZQ)
Market-implied EFFR path. Each month's ZQ contract prices the average EFFR for that month.
Anchor · EFFR
3.62%
Fed target 3.50–3.75
Today 1M ago EFFR 3.62% Fed target band FOMC · post-meeting implied vs EFFRBold = SEP meeting (Summary of Economic Projections)
Green dots are each month's average implied EFFR from its ZQ contract. FOMC labels solve the implied post-meeting rate (vs current EFFR) using day weights, so a late-month meeting's figure can differ from the dot-to-dot gap. Hover a meeting month for the breakdown.
Next meeting
Jul 29 · +6bp
Cuts by EOY 2026
-1.4 (+35bp)
vs 1M ago: -1.0
Terminal rate
3.63%
Jul 26 contract
Repricing · 1M
+4bp hawkish
US Mortgage Rates
FRED · Freddie Mac PMMS · weekly (Thu)30-Year Fixed
6.49%
+0.06 · 1W
52W lo 5.98%52W hi 6.75%
15-Year Fixed
5.82%
+0.03 · 1W
52W lo 5.35%52W hi 5.92%
30Y Mortgage − 10Y Treasury
1.94%
+2bp vs 20Y avg
Elevated spread reflects MBS supply + prepayment option cost in high-vol regime.